Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary January 28, 2019

Stocks

Stocks emerged from MLK Day, falling 2.2%, then recovered, but failed to exceed the level of the prior weeks close. An improvement in Market Breadth, led by the New Economy sector, will likely give the market a few weeks of staying power. Fifteen days, and counting, of consecutive bullish momentum needs to be “worked off”, which only the passage of time can accomplish. We’re looking for a pull-back to Fib support SPY 254.47 – 252.52 (strong), and then a bounce into early February, before stocks seek lower levels.

Gold

Spot gold closed the week at 1303. the highest close since May 18, 2018, and for the fifth consecutive week sits above the 55 week mvg avg (1259.24), and at an 8 month high vs the Dollar. While this bull will not be stopped, stiff Fib resistance should show up GLD 123.86 (spot 1313-1315) from where the breakdown last occurred, and the cartel should vigorously defend this area. The same situation applies to silver, with Fib resistance SLV 15.07 – 15.12 (spot silver 15.82 – 16.00). SLV close over 15.23 turns Weekly trends bullish. Gold shares (GDX) held Fib support (20.45), gapped out of its base on Friday, heading toward strong Fib resistance (21.70). GDX close over 21.82 turns Weekly trends bullish.

Dollar

The greenback found stiff resistance on its bounce-back UUP 25.66 (actual high 25.68), then dropped sharply closing Friday 25.44. A bear run should begin with Fib targets 24.68 – 24.32 (strong).

Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary January 22, 2019

Stocks

The pull-back off last weeks bearish Squat lasted exactly one day, amounting to 1%, before rallying four days (in options expiration week) for another 3% bounce to SPY 266.98, on a 14 week low in volume, (bearish) and fulfilling our projected first bounce of 12 to 14% off the bear market low (actual 13.7%). Stocks now sit at important resistance, having touched our fast 89 line on Friday. Our Upside/Downside volume numbers remain bearish throughout the 16 day rally. With the bearish Weekly Squat remaining unsatisfied, we expect a sharp pullback at any time, into Fib Support SPY 254.47 – 252.52 (strong), — then another bounce — which should be the final bounce, before stocks crater to new lows. This choppy trading will take us into early February.

Gold

As suggested last week, the metal hit our projected target 1294 – 1310, and is in the process of consolidating the 11% rally from 1167 in August 2018, to the prior weeks high of 1297. The 1280 Fib support level was touched on Friday, with spot closing the week 1281.30. Maximum Fib support 1269 – 1260. In keeping with golds’ safe-haven status, silver under-performed, but still closed comfortably above both our key 89 lines. It’s important for gold investors to fully appreciate that gold is in a strong bull market around the word, having reached at, or near all-time highs, in 72 countries (currencies) while being constantly suppressed in US Dollar terms. GLD Fib support 119.25. GDX Fib sup 19.67. SLV Fib support 14.07. The gold shares are maintaining bullish Upside/Downside volume readings. The 55 week mvg avg for spot gold is 1258.43.

Dollar

A bit of a surprise, as the Dollar (UUP) bounced back into our two 89 lines, closing 25.56. UUP should find strong Fib resistance at 25.66, before starting a bear run, with Fib support 24.68 – 24.32 (strong).

Stocks, Gold & Dollar Commentary January 14, 2019

Stocks

Stocks had a good week, tacking on 2.0% on four out of five up-days, closing the week out flat. The General Market has now gained 10.6 in 11 trading days since the low (SPY 233.76) on December 26, on its way to an eventual 12 to14% bounce off its first bear market low — with the reversal of the Primary Trend having been established — this is typical of first bounces off the bear market lows as in 2000 and 2007, which saw 12% bounces. SPY 263.51 is an important Fib target. But first, a consolidation, and pull-back is likely, with last weeks Bearish Weekly Squat on a 14 week low in Weekly Range. SPY Fib support 247.17. A high day is due January 22/23. 

Gold

Several weeks ago we put out our target for spot gold at 1294 – 1310. That target was reached with a spot 1297 print last Thursday, January 10. Fierce cartel paper selling near the highs, drove down the spot price to 1280, before settling 1288.20. Both gold and silver will likely go into consolidation, which is very healthy, and a precursor for a strong next leg up. Spot gold will find Fib support 1280. Silver 15.60. In the event of an all-out cartel raid, maximum Fib support 1569 – 1560.  Important to note that spot gold has now completed its third consecutive week over the 55 week mvg avg 1258.01, solidifying the bull move. GLD Fib resistance 123.86. GDX Fib resistance 20.77. The gold shares were flat on the week but registered a 7 month high when measured against the Dollar.

Dollar

The Dollar (UUP) fell decisively through our 2 converging 89 lines (bearish) to settle 25.36, and now projects UUP 24.68 – 24.32 (strong) and the start of a new down trend.